October 14, 2019  

ISIS has just been revived.

Kurdistan just got a lot farther away as Iran will become the Kurds new patron. The Turks are going to slaughter Kurds because the Pr...

Kurdistan just got a lot farther away as Iran will become the Kurds new patron.

The Turks are going to slaughter Kurds because the President said they could.  One supposed ally of the US is now going to war with a proven one.   So sudden is the development that the ramifications of the Kurdish betrayal haven’t been fathomed yet.  But I will make some predictions.

The dictator of Turkey, Erdogan, jails journalists and political opponents by the thousands and says elements of the Kurds are terrorists.  That’s not too far from the truth.  But in the face of decades of political suppression of 10 million Kurds living in Eastern Turkey through forced migration, and secondary citizenship, separatist feeling amongst these people is warranted. 

Turkey is a NATO member but wouldn’t allow US troops to transit through their territory during the war in Iraq.  They’re not our friends.  Recently, they bought Russian air defense weapons after America wouldn’t permit it.  The Peshmerga defeated ISIS along with America special operators and our airpower.  Sanctions will soon be imposed on them because they’ve introduced Russian systems into their military arsenal.  A severe violation of the military alliance.

But Turkey has borne the brunt of the human catastrophe of Syria refugees up to 3.6 million souls.  Erdogan seeks to settle them in a buffer zone in Syria or expel them into Europe. 

About 15,000 ISIS prisoners are in jails administered by Kurds.  That’s the wild card.  What happens to the ISIS fighters?  Do the Kurds march them into the desert for a final solution?  Turn them over to the Turks?  They’d just get shuffled to Europe (where a lot came from).  I think their continued administration of the prisons for the world’s benefit is gone.  They’d better think only for themselves now that the United States doesn’t want to be involved anymore.  The hegemon has grown tired, again.

So what will happen? The American president will not reverse himself reference his own words three days ago, “in his great and unmatched wisdom” (sounds very righteous) and place our troopers back into Syria once withdrawn.  The Turks will press their advantage as quickly as they can and attempt to control a buffer zone but will be harried by Kurdish militia.  The prisoners will be released wholesale as a diversionary tactic as The Kurds withdraw into Iraq as refugees themselves.  An Iraq where their militias are controlled by Iran.  The terrorist cells in Turkey will attack government officials.

Third and forth order of effects may be to enflame the Kurds in Turkey towards a civil war there.  If ISIS begins offensive operations again the Kurds will be forced to retreat.  They will need a patron.  They will turn to Iran to survive.